The Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI), created by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (EC JRC), is an index of the statistical risk of violent conflict in the next 1-4 years for each country in the world. It assumes that structural conditions in a country are linked to the occurrence of violent conflict. The GCRI is exclusively based on quantitative indicators from open sources. It is calculated for 24 indicators across 5 dimensions:
Political (Regime Type, Lack of Democracy, Government Effectiveness, Level of Repression, Empowerment Rights);
Security (Recent Internal Conflict, Neighbors with Highly Violent Conflict, Years since Highly Violent Conflict);
Social (Corruption, Ethnic Power Change, Ethnic Compilation, Transnational Ethnic Bonds, Homicide Rate, Infant Mortality);
Economy (GDP per Capita, Income Inequality, Openness, Food Security, Unemployment);
Geography and Environment (Water Stress, Oil Production, Structural Constraints, Population Size, Youth Bulge).
The GCRI uses a linear regression model including historical data to train the model. Its creators at the EC JRC first determined the predictive value of the 24 variables regarding conflict onsets in the past 20 years. They then applied the results to the final model and derived the weights for the indicators from their significance regarding the model performance. Countries were scored on a 10-point scale for each of the 24 indicators. Data were obtained from open source resources such as the World Bank Group, United Nations, or Uppsala Data Conflict Program (UCDP). Resource Watch shows only a subset of the data set. For access to the full data set and additional information, see the Learn More link.
Global Conflict Risk Index, Version July 2017
Although the methodology was developed building on international expertise, no expert judgment or analysis is used in the 6-monthly updates of the GCRI. It is a quantitative method purely based on data processing data. The EC JRC also notes the following limitations: (1) Data in, data out: the model considers only the data. If the source data have errors, are not updated, or are missing, the model output will reflect this. At no point is a judgment or analysis performed at country level. (2) 5 structural risk areas: structural drivers of conflict are simplified in 5 structural risk areas (political, security, social, economic, environmental/structural) associated with violent conflict, with each including 4 or 5 indicators. Potential triggering events are not included in the model (GCRI is not an onset model). (3) Internal conflict: conflicts are grouped in 3 categories: interstate conflicts, conflicts about national power, and subnational conflicts. Currently, only those in the third category are modeled. Interstate conflicts are excluded due to lack of data.
European Commission Joint Research Centre. 2017. "Global Conflict Risk Index, Version July 2017." Retrieved from http://conflictrisk.jrc.ec.europa.eu/. Accessed through Resource Watch, (date). www.resourcewatch.org.