Projected Extreme Heat Days

Projected change in extreme heat days in 2051-2080, relative to 1971-2000, under RCP 8.5. Represents the annual average count of days with heat greater than the 99th percentile of the baseline

  • Source: Derived from NEX
  • Last update: -

Projected change in extreme heat days in 2051-2080, relative to 1971-2000, under RCP 8.5, as derived from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). Represents the annual average count of days with heat greater than the 99th percentile of the baseline.

The NEX-GDDP data set is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The CMIP5 GCM runs were developed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). The NEX-GDDP data set includes downscaled projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the 21 models and scenarios for which daily scenarios were produced and distributed under CMIP5. The two RCPs correspond to different levels of radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas emissions. RCP 4.5 refers to a future scenario where emissions peak at 2040 and then decline, while RCP 8.5 refers to a future scenario where emissions continue to rise through 2100.

The NEX GDDP data set contains daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100. The spatial resolution of the data set is 0.25 degrees (~25 km x 25 km). The NEX-GDDP data set is provided to assist the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, and to enhance public understanding of possible future global climate patterns at the spatial scale of individual towns, cities, and watersheds. Each of the climate projections includes monthly averaged maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2005 (Retrospective Run) and from 2006 to 2099 (Prospective Run).

The NEX-GDDP data was processed for inclusion on Resource Watch. This processing included deriving climate indicators from the raw temperature and precipitation data and then using those indicators to create an ensemble measure of the 21 climate models, as well as their 25th and 75th percentiles. The data is presented at two different temporal resolutions: decadal averages and 30-year period averages. A detailed explanation of the data processing can be found here: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/15_fPbKvuRsBKUWlrOWXurUDllzRJmMVd#scrollTo=mPL4beQdNjDm.

Resource Watch shows the processed data derived from the NEX GDDP data set. For access to the original NEX GDDP data set and additional information, see the Learn More link. For access to the processed data set, please contact the PREPdata team at https://www.prepdata.org/.

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Formal name

Extreme Heat Days, derived from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP)

Cautions

The Bias-Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) approach used in generating this downscaled dataset inherently assumes that the relative spatial patterns in temperature and precipitation observed from 1950 through 2005 will remain constant under future climate change. Other than the higher spatial resolution and bias correction, this dataset does not add information beyond what is contained in the original Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) scenarios, and preserves the frequency of periods of anomalously high and low temperature or precipitation (i.e., extreme events) within each individual CMIP5 scenario.

Suggested citation

(1) Vizzuality. 2018. “Extreme Heat Days, derived from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP).” https://www.prepdata.org/dataset/xs_rcp45_decadal. Accessed through Resource Watch, (date). www.resourcewatch.org.

(2) National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange (NEX). 2015. "NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX- GDDP)." http://dx.doi.org/10.7292/W0MW2F2G. Accessed through Resource Watch, (date). www.resourcewatch.org.

(3) Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C., & Duffy, P. B., 2012: Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(9), 3309-3314. Accessed through Resource Watch, (date). www.resourcewatch.org.

(4) Climate scenarios used were from the NEX-GDDP dataset, prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center using the NASA Earth Exchange, and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS). Accessed through Resource Watch, (date). www.resourcewatch.org. (NOTE) To cite the processed data set, use citation (1).

Sources

Vizzuality (processed data set) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange (NEX) (original data set)

Geographic coverage

Global

Spatial resolution

0.25°

Date of content

Projected difference between 2051-2080 and 1971-2000 baseline

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