The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030 by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (NASA SEDAC) presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land cover change from 2000 through 2030 at a 2.5 arc-minute resolution. For each grid cell that is nonurban in 2000, a Monte Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product, Version 5, which provides a conservative estimate of global urban land cover. The authors then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMP v1), to create the population density driver map. They estimated the amount of new urban land in each UN region by 2030 in a Monte Carlo fashion based on present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities and probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030. Resource Watch shows only a subset of the data set. For access to the full data set and additional information, see the Learn More link.
Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030, v1 (2000 – 2030)
The data are valid for exploring patterns and dynamics over large regions. It is not advisable to use the data to draw conclusions about any one locality. These data therefore are not recommended for use in analyses of small areas. They are best used for analyses over broader areas. Although regions were not excluded in the creation of these data, some small urban areas, such as Tromso and Norilsk, are missing. This is a result of resampling the input land-cover data from 463 m to 5 km.
(1) Seto, K., B. Güneralp, and L.R. Hutyra. 2015. "Land Use and Land Cover (LULUC): Global Grid of Probabilitiesof Urban Expansion to 2030, v1 (2000-2030)." Palisades, NY: SEDAC. Retreived from http://dx.doi.org/10.7927/H4Z899CG. Accessed through Resource Watch, (date). www.resourcewatch.org.
(2) Seto, K., B. Güneralp, and L.R. Hutyra. 2012. "Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools."Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America109 (40): 16083-16088. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211658109. Accessed through Resource Watch, (date). www.resourcewatch.org.
2.5 arc minutes